A model of [ option ] prices that assumes: The existence of a risk-free asset paying some interest rate, for example, US Treasury bonds…
see also [ agency ]
Fundamental observation is that [ the map is not the territory ]. BUT---there is a real and important distinction between models that are…
A nice paper that gets at some subtleties of calibration: Daniel D. Johnson, Daniel Tarlow, David Duvenaud, Chris J. Maddison. Experts Don't…
As AGW points out here , it is statistically better to fit a flexible model family, with an inductive bias, than a constrained model family…
Update Feb 2025: I now think the existence of [ memory reconsolidation ] makes the point expressed here much less of a blackpill. Factual…
If you believe that neural nets basically just memorize the training data, then training larger and larger models is hopeless. The…
An idea I got from [ John Higgs ]'s discussion of metamodernism is that taking [ all models are wrong ] to its logical conclusion requires…
One last thought mental models are so, so important. When I think about computer modeling. It's actually great computers are powerful they…
[ thoughts on multivariate causalimpact ]
(see also: [ large models ]) There's a viewpoint that neural nets just memorize the training data, so the more training data you have, the…
Matt Levine explains how a financier might react to losing a billion dollars: Sure sure the risks didn’t work out but you probably have a…
Introduced by Geoff Hinton (1999): Products of Experts . Each expert produces a probability distribution. These are combined by…